Posted Nov 02, 2010 K. K. Steincke? A quick internet search revealed a quote “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” by Niels Bohr, a Danish physicist. It is the most important public health issue for decades that public health can actually affect and we have not yet seen the full impact across the world. Forecasting “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.” Nils Bohr Objectives • Give the fundamental rules Anonymous? Volumes: 5-6 These dates will probably change as more citations are uncovered. Authors Anne L Donovan, Michael A Gropper. Not so in 2015. The Historians Repeat One Another, Drawing on My Fine Command of Language, I Said Nothing, Dr. Mardy's Dictionary of Metaphorical Quotations. Da den kloge biskop Absalon i ellevehundredhvidkål grundlagde København, var han en meget fremsynet mand, alle datidens byplan teoretikere har sikkert stottet ham i overbevisningen om, …, History Does Not Repeat Itself. 56. citations of this article EID Journal Metrics on Scopus. Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future* Latronico, Nicola MD. Critical Care Medicine: February 2015 - Volume 43 - Issue 2 - p 505–506. Prognostic models are commonplace and seek to help patients and the surgical team estimate the risk of a specific event, for instance, the recurrence of disease or a complication of surgery. The above quote is also attributed to various humourists and the Danish poet Piet Hein: “det er svært at spå - især om fremtiden” . Schrodi SJ(1), Mukherjee S(2), Shan Y(3), Tromp G(4), Sninsky JJ(5), Callear AP(6), Carter TC(1), Ye Z(7), Haines JL(8), Brilliant MH(1), Crane PK(2), Smelser DT(4), Elston RC(8), Weeks DE(3). (Old Fulton), 1984 March 12, The Post (The Palm Beach Post), Actress Gears Up For Busy Schedule by Liz Smith (Syndicated Column), Quote Page B2, Column 1, Palm Beach, Florida. We make no apology for the amount devoted to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in this issue. So, here is our forecast for 2020: It will continue to be tough to make predictions, especially about the future. PMID: 29470331 [Indexed for MEDLINE] Publication Types: Letter; Comment; MeSH terms. For full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription. “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!” - Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate Physicist “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities. (Verified on microfilm), 1980 August 26, Finger Lake Times Three Options for the Soviets, (Acknowledgement to Economist, London), Quote Page 5, Column 1, Geneva, New York. Also, some text was rewritten. Image Notes: The Crystal Ball circa 1902 by John William Waterhouse. Genetic-based prediction of disease traits: prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Fellow scientist Stanislaw M. Ulam who knew and communicated with Bohr credited him in 1976. Nostradamus? The regulation of false information on social media platforms is something that needs to be urgently addressed. Samuel Goldwyn? Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future-Niels Bohr. This post was originally published here. Metric Details. In July 1973 the periodical New Scientist printed an instance without attribution: 13. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr (1885 – 1962) In keeping with the famous quote above, our outlook for stock markets in 2018 is unashamedly honest; it’s very difficult to predict. Too many armchair critics do not appreciate the difficulties in the use of full personal protective equipment and infection control procedures whilst caring for these residents. "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." By Tim Doggett | June 2, 2014. The unprecedented events of 2020 demonstrated quite how difficult it can be. This early citation 3 and several others remarked on the Danish language origin of the aphoristic joke: 4. Danish text is followed by an English rendering below. Others think it came from the other side of the Atlantic. (Questia), 2000, Asian Economic Trends and Their Security Implications by Charles Wolf Jr., Anil Bamezai, K. C. Yeh, and Benjamin Zycher, Chapter One, Quote Page 1, Publisher by Rand, Santa Monica, California. It is said that that Bohr used to quote this saying to … Would you please tell me who I should credit? Here are five examples: Of course, a prediction is inherently about the future, and the modifiers “especially” and “particularly” emphasize the comical redundancy of the statement. Search for other works by this author on: For the ACTT-1 Study Group Members. Free Online Library: Antimicrobial drug resistance: "prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (1). As quoted in Teaching and Learning Elementary Social Studies (1970) by Arthur K. Ellis, p. 431 (The first volume of this book is 1977. In May 1961 “The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science” printed an instance of the saying using the word “hazardous” instead of “dangerous”. “Prediction Is V ery Difficult, Especially About the Fut ure” (Niels Boh r) Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MCS.2013.2295692 Date of publica tion: 14 March 2014 A letter attributes the following comment to Niels Bohr: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Antimicrobial Drug Resistance: "Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially about the Future"1. In the final analysis, all countries will be found to have made mistakes and the politicization of COVID-19 by both the left and the right across the world, which will not help in controlling this pandemic. Englisch-Deutsch-Wörterbuch: Prediction is very difficult especially about the future Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Comment in Obstet Gynecol. Prediction is difficult, especially about the future Prediction is difficult, especially about the future . Sitting Bull. RIS [TXT - 2 KB] Article Metrics. This “1970” date is incorrect in Google Books—ed.) Comment on Obstet Gynecol. 2017 Dec;130(6):1181-1182. Thanks also to Douglas G. Wilson for his analysis of the supposed 1918 citation. In 1988 an article in the journal “The Hastings Center Report” assigned the saying to Nostradamus who was well-known for his prophecies: 19. “In the words of Yogi Berra, ‘I never make predictions, especially about the future,'” Foskey said. Life Future Together. A refusal to fully participate in an open enquiry will only fuel speculation about the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which has undertaken world’s leading research on bat coronaviruses. In 1976 the mathematician Stanislaw M. Ulam writing in his book “Adventures of a Mathematician” credited the adage to Niels Bohr: 15. The aforementioned sentiment, which may have been uttered by Niels Bohr, is, thankfully, frequently ignored by medical investigators. (Verified on paper), 2012, The Dictionary of Modern Proverbs, Compiled by Charles Clay Doyle, Wolfgang Mieder, and Fred R. Shapiro, Page 206, Yale University Press, New Haven. The media in the UK during May 2020 seemed to have adopted the attitude regarding everything that was being done and happening was wrong. It’s dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future. Er de faktorer, der bevirker prisfald, stærkere end de, der presser priserne op? The first appearance in English located by QI was printed in a 1956 academic publication called the “Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. While it sounds more like a " Yogi-ism ," the point made is interesting particularly as it relates to investing. As Mark Twain said, it is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future. Something drastic may evolve, an entirely different point of view on the axiomatic method itself. In mid-July, the world has surpassed past 250 000 daily cases. Pictures accessed via Wikimedia Commons. Series A”. Others say that it was the American film producer Samuel Goldwin who said “never make predictions – especially when the future is concerned”. 2 More information about Danish citations for this saying is presented in the addendum at the end of this article. [author unknown; attributed to Karl Valentin, Mark Twain or Niels Bohr] Prognosen sind schwierig, besonders wenn sie die Zukunft betreffen. (Verified on paper), 1979 September 8, The Economist, Section: Books, Kahn and his banzai, (Book review of “World Economic Development 1979 and Beyond” and “The Japanese Challenge”, Start Page 120, Quote Page 121, Column 1, Published by Economist Newspaper Ltd., London. In 2000 an article from the RAND Corporation thank tank mentioned ascriptions to Mark Twain and Yogi Berra: 22, Two familiar quotations are worth citing to clarify the objectives of this analysis. In 1988 an article in the journal “The Hastings Center Report” assigned the saying to Nostradamus who was well-known for his prophecies: 19, Nostradamus allegedly said, “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.”, In 1991 a marketer in the tourism industry in Virginia ascribed a variant of the saying to Yogi Berra: 20. Link: here, … „Det er vanskeligt at spå, navnlig om fremtiden”? Pathways to Resistance. Nobody digging into their Christmas turkey last year could have seen the black swan of … Cite This Article . Future Difficult Prediction. (JSTOR), 1976, Adventures of a Mathematician by Stanislaw M. Ulam, Quote Page 286, Charles Scribner’s Sons, New York. 1948, Farvel Og Tak: Minder Og Meninger by K. K. Steincke, (Farvel Og tak: Ogsaa en Tilvaerelse IV (1935-1939)), Quote Page 227, Forlaget Fremad, København. Hurricane Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially if It's About the Future. Especially if it's about the future.I rarely make firm market forecasts. Update History: On January 5, 2021 instances of “Neils” were changed to “Niels”. Alas, it is always dangerous to prophesy, particularly, as the Danish proverb says, about the future. On This Page How To Anticipate Resistance. The UK has been a world leader in the recruitment of patients to the gold-standard RCTs with >12 000 now recruited. In conclusion, current evidence indicates that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish, and the author remains unknown. The public rely on the media for their information and, at times, the quality and accuracy has been seriously substandard. Quote by Niels Bohr: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about ...”. Figure 2. ... Keith Neal, Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future 1, Journal of Public Health, Volume 42, … As Niels Bohr, the Danish physicist, put it, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future As Niels Bohr, the Danish physicist, put it, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”. Horby P, Shen Lim W, Emberson J et al. But there exist other potential Danish citations. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic. Publisher: Kbhvn. For permissions, please e-mail: [email protected], This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (, The impact of nature-based education on health-related quality of life among low-income youth: results from an intervention study, Introduction to and spread of COVID-19-like illness in care homes in Norfolk, UK, Reception of health messages: effects of stigmatization and forcefulness, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among medical students, The association between alcohol consumption and self-reported current depression among adults residing in Brazil, About the Faculty of Public Health of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom, https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model, Receive exclusive offers and updates from Oxford Academic, Copyright © 2021 Faculty of Public Health. QI would like to obtain scans from these periodicals in order to post an excerpt and provide additional context to readers. Figures Figure 1. As Niels Bohr said in one of his amusing remarks: “It is very hard to predict, especially the future.” But I think mathematics will greatly change its aspect. We have seen serious issues in care homes in many countries.4 This has led to many deaths in these places amongst those most vulnerable in our society, but the difficulties in keeping infection out and under control in these places was always going to be a Herculean task once there was widespread transmission in the community. As a recent example of the undaunted, Gupta et al1 describe the development and validation of a predictive instrument designed to estimate the risk of adverse outcomes for children who have undergone cardiac surgery. Niels Bohr, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, is quoted as saying, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!” This quote serves as a warning of the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample. Niels Bohr? Page 101 (approximate) A principal purpose of this conference, as I am given to understand, is to try to look into the future of mathematical statistics. If you can read Danish and have access to a comprehensive library perhaps you would be willing to help. In 1980 a newspaper in New York reprinted a different article from “The Economist” that credited Samuel Goldwyn: 17, Every prognosis here should be salted with all the familiar cautionary phrases, from Samuel Johnson’s snort (when warned in 1770 of Britain’s supposed impending ruin) that “there is a great deal of ruin in a country”, to Samuel Goldwyn’s “never prophesy, especially about the future”, In 1984 the popular syndicated gossip columnist Liz Smith ascribed the adage to Goldwyn: 18. Here are additional selected citations in chronological order. As Niels Bohr, the Danish physicist, put it, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”. Samuel Goldwyn died in 1974, and his first linkage to the saying known to QI was printed in 1979. Boldface added to excerpts by QI: 1. “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra Read more quotes from Yogi Berra. Relative to their celebrated American counterparts, UK forecasters have to produce forecasts for a very large number of individual races. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Downloads Article . Simon Wilson, Co-Head, Payments at Icon Solutions It has been said that prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future. (Verified on paper), 1956, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (General), “Proceedings of the Meeting”, [Speaker: Bradford Hill], Page 147, Volume 119, Number 2, Blackwell Publishing for the Royal Statistical Society. Also, thus far too many trials from around the world have involved retrospective analysis with historical controls. . It was the brilliant statesman, diplomat and politician, Abba Eban, who made the wry observation, "Prediction is difficult, especially about the future." Calls for an inquiry by Australia were met by China imposing trade tariffs on Australia within days. The rise of UKIP, the increasing dominance of the SNP within Scotland, and the gaining in strength of the Greens are parallel electoral phenomena with little historical precedent. In Focus. The two can hardly be seen as unconnected. Never make forecasts, especially about the future. (JSTOR), 1961 May, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science / Revue Canadienne d’Economique et de Science politique, Volume 27, Number 2, “Canada’s Economic Prospects: A Survey of Ten Industries” by Jesse W. Markham, Page 264, Blackwell Publishing on behalf of Canadian Economics Association. Den store efterspørgsel …, Title: Byplan Editorials . These expressions have been attributed to a diverse collection of individuals, including Niels Bohr, Sam Goldwyn, Robert Storm Petersen, and Yogi Berra. Tables Table. (Internet Archive), 1969, How to Use the Computer in Business Planning by Henry F. Lande, Section: The Purpose of This Book, Quote Page ix, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. Quote: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Mark Twain? “"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. by "Emerging Infectious Diseases"; Health, general Antimicrobial additives Research Microbial mutation Author: Dansk byplanlaboratorium; Norsk byplanforening. The metadata and the snippet text presented by Google Books are sometimes inaccurate. The words were credited to an unidentified Danish humorist: 6. Prediction about the future gets much easier though if the law and legally binding documents poorly explained compel a particular vision. Quote Investigator: The Danish politician Karl Kristian Steincke authored a multi-volume autobiography, and the earliest evidence known to QI appeared in the fourth volume titled “Farvel Og Tak” (“Goodbye and Thanks”) which was released in 1948. Keith Neal. Pictures are cropped. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. (Now Published by Reed Business Information) (Google Books full view), 1975 September, Advances in Applied Probability, Volume 7, Supplement: Proceedings of the Conference on Directions for Mathematical Statistics, Some Reflections of a Mathematician on the Nature and the Role of Statistics by Mark Kac, Start Page 5, Quote Page 5, Published by Applied Probability Trust. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future-Niels Bohr Crit Care Med. This ascription occurs frequently in modern times: 11, We must test all intellectually respectable lines of inquiry, while keeping in mind that, as the great Danish physicist Niels Bohr said, “it is very difficult to predict — especially the future.”, In January 1973 the saying was credited to Niels Bohr again in a journal published by the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) by the mathematician Mark Kac of Rockefeller University: 12. (JSTOR), 1962, Journal Name: Geofysiske Publikasjoner: Geophysica Norvegica, Volume 24, Special Issue: In memory of Vilhelm Bjerknes on the 100th Aniversary of His Birth, Article Title: “Vilhelm Bjerknes, March 14, 1862 – April 19, 1951”, Authors: Tor Bergeron, Olaf Devik, and Carl Ludvig Godske, Article Section: “Back in Oslo” by Carl Ludvig Godske, Start Page 21, Quote Page 25, Published by Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi i Oslo, Universitetsforlaget, Oslo, Published in cooperation with the American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachusetts. like predicting the future, it seems that the true provenence is murky. It is always very difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future, and extrapolation of the prices of common stock has ruined many a speculator. Donald Trump’s decision to end the USA’s involvement does his own country a disservice as it weakens the response to a pandemic—a worldwide problem. (Accessed Archive at ngfweb.no on October 19, 2013), 1963 December, Computers and Automation, Volume 12, Number 12, Diebold Researchers Undertake Study of EDP Developments, Quote Page 10, Column 1, Published by Berkeley Enterprises, Inc, Newtonville, Massachusetts. Prediction at the Genetic Level. Share this quote: Like Quote. Also, in the same week, a senior executive of a company involved in COVID vaccine manufacturing was optimistic about a vaccine in September on BBC TV. predictions about future performance. Control your own destiny or someone else will. They clearly had not thought that he might have more information about vaccine progress than nearly everyone else in the country. 2015 Feb;43(2):505-6. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795. This was again under-reported, although a number of media interviewers later in the week questioned how he could be so optimistic during interviews on their programmes. Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially If It Is About the Future. To see what your friends thought of this quote, please sign up! The monumental uplifts in digital volumes, shifts in customer requirements and broader economic impact would have been (and frankly still […] In September 1961 a version of the expression was published in “The Journal of Medical Education”, and the author of the article was identified as the Director of Institute for Experimental Research in Surgery at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide, This PDF is available to Subscribers Only. On 16 June 2020, the UK reported the first drug, dexamethasone, to improve mortality from a randomized control trial (RCT).3 It has taken the UK leading the world in recruitment to RCTs to show this benefit; something that would have been shown months earlier if China and the World Health Organization (WHO) had actively organized proper trials instead of ad hoc treatments of various drugs and various Chinese medicines, none of which seem to be properly described even in submitted papers. But. Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future 1. Van Holsbeke C(1). Beigel JH, Tomashek KM, Dodd LE et al. "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." In September 1975 the mathematician Mark Kac employed the quip again. Yogi Berra? The main issue at hand is our ability to predict and prepare for the future. (Great thanks to top lexicographical researcher Barry Popik for his pioneering work on this topic. “Prediction,” goes an old Danish proverb, “is hazardous, especially about the future.” For the Canadian economy the hazard is especially great. "” — Niels Bohr Friends Who Liked This Quote. Niels Bohr, the famous Danish physicist, devoted all his work to understand the where and what of an elementary particle in the now, so when asked about the future, he said “Prediction is very difficult, especially when the future is concerned”. While (to quote Niels Bohr) “it is difficult to predict, especially the future” it might be useful (and fun) to pick out some recent developments which might be the forerunner of things to come. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr (1885 – 1962) In keeping with the famous quote above, our outlook for stock markets in 2018 is unashamedly honest; it’s very difficult … Special thanks to Seamus Bradley, Daniel Gackle, and Janos Simon whose inquires motivated QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. Other papers submitted have just included unspecified Chinese medicines in a highly uncontrolled manner. Niels Bohr. This citation was mentioned in the prominent reference “The Yale Book of Quotations”. In 1979 a book reviewer in the London magazine “The Economist” attached the expression to the movie mogul Sam Goldwyn who was well-known for his humorously incongruous statements: 16. .Danish Proverb, In 1969 the book “How to Use the Computer in Business Planning” included an instance of the quip without attribution: 10, Let us not forget the old adage, “Forecasting is very difficult, especially about the future.”, In 1971 a version of the saying was attributed to the famous physicist Niels Bohr in the pages of the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists”. (Sorry about the number of dead links on this page---it's tedious to keep it up to date!) Through Foreign Eyes” by Elsa Gress Wright, Start Page 282, Quote Page 300, Published by Kenyon College, Gambier, Ohio. Volume: 48 This meant that the results of a trial2 showing Remdesivir shortened serious illness by 4 days went virtually unreported despite this being highly relevant to anyone unfortunate to become seriously ill with COVID-19 infection. . View Forecasting.ppt from STATISTIC 3003 at GLA University. When one week’s headlines were dominated by the childcare arrangements of a government advisor, a number of key stories were missed. (Publisher Fremad, Copenhagen, Denmark) (Verified with scans; thanks to a kind librarian at Åbo Akademis bibliotek), 2006, The Yale Book of Quotations by Fred R. Shapiro, Section Niels Bohr, Quote Page 92, Yale University Press, New Haven. (Google News Archive), 1988 December, Journal title: The Hastings Center Report, Volume 18, Number 6, Article title: Precatory Prediction and Mindless Mimicry: The Case of Mary O’Connor, Author: George J. Annas, (Unnumbered page in database), Published by Hastings Center. “Never make forecasts, especially about the future,” our old friend Sam Goldwyn said. Keith Neal, Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future1, Journal of Public Health, Volume 42, Issue 3, September 2020, Pages 443–444, https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdaa141. We live in a global world and the world needs a global body to help control pandemics. Those who have to make or inform the decisions are often in a no-win situation, as every country will be found to have made mistakes by the time the pandemic is over. He carefully noted the ascription to Bohr, but he also stated that the expression was “an old Danish proverb”: 14. Dear Quote Investigator: There is a family of popular humorous sayings about the formidable task of successful prognostication. The saying appeared in a section with this title: Og saa til Slut et Par parlamentariske Sprogblomster, And finally a couple of parliamentary howlers, The saying was spoken during the parliamentary year 1937-1938, and no attribution was specified. Remdesivir for the treatment of Covid-19 — preliminary report, Effect of dexamethasone in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: preliminary report, Surveillance of COVID-19 at Long-Term Care Facilities in the EU/EEA, © The Author(s) 2020. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795. Death and taxes may be certain, but preseason hurricane forecasts are quite the opposite. This has not been helped by at least one UK paper wanting to talk to experts who agree with their chosen line and TV news presenters, using their own words to explain something in the absence of any facts. Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. In 1998 the book “To Light Such a Candle: Chapters in the History of Science and Technology” by Keith J. Laidler suggested that Mark Twain used the saying: 21. Grooks Another feature of the pandemic has been the number of public health professionals putting the public health perspective in the media. --Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics This quote serves as a warning of the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample. In the quest for getting the future right, we need to address two questions: do we have the right tools to understand the past, but also is having the right understanding of the past sufficient to prepare us adequately for the future? It seems that the expression, but the date remains uncertain Obstetrics and Gynecology, Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg, ZOL Genk. Around the world needs an enquiry so as to learn as many lessons as possible uncontrolled manner ACTT-1... Trials from around the world needs a global world and the first written instance now was! American counterparts, UK forecasters have to produce forecasts for a very large number dead... An unidentified Danish humorist: 6 p 505–506: `` prediction is very difficult, especially about future. For a very large number of dead links on this topic citations of this article devoted to disease-2019... Have more information about vaccine progress than nearly everyone else in the recruitment of patients to the gold-standard RCTs >. Is a Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg, ZOL, Genk, Belgium prediction is,. Is about the number of key stories were missed ”: 14 and several remarked... Spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden to quote this saying to … this post was originally published here many! About page here instances of “ Neils ” were changed to “ Niels ” * Latronico, Nicola.! 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